Consumer prices rose 1.2% over a year in France in October, INSEE indicated on Thursday, after 1.1% in September, a “quasi-stability” according to the Institute.
Over one month, according to these preliminary estimates, prices rose 0.2% in October after falling 1.2% in September.
The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), which allows comparisons between European countries, rose by 1.5% in October after 1.4% in September.
The “quasi-stability” of October, specifies the National Institute of Statistics in its preliminary estimate, results “a slowdown in service prices and a less noticeable drop in energy prices over one year than in September”while the prices of manufactured products, food and tobacco appear to be at annual rates close to those of September.
In one month, the slight increase in prices will be linked to the increase in those of energy (mainly those of oil and gas products), the prices of manufactured products (especially those of clothes and shoes), prices of services (especially transport), and prices of food (especially fresh produce).
Tobacco prices should be stable compared to September.
In October 2023, inflation was still 4% in one year, recalls INSEE.
“Disinflationary pressure remains strong and inflation is expected to remain below 2% in the coming months.”estimates Sylvain Bersinger, chief economist at Asterès, in a note.
“The drop in oil prices, which is likely to be permanent, as well as positive developments in industry and services give cause for optimism”according to him.
He especially observes “that with the conflict in the Middle East, especially Israel’s attacks on Iran, it was feared that oil prices would recover.”. More “This was not the case, especially since Israel did not target Iranian oil installations”.
“The Chinese Economic Slowdown and the Increase in Crude Production in the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana” also continue “to influence prices” oil, adds Mr Bersinger.
The ECB has eased its monetary policy recently, with three interest rate cuts since June.
Inflation in France is now well below the 2% target favored by the institution.
In September it was 1.7% in the eurozone, prompting Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau to say this month that “The risk of permanently missing our target from the bottom now exists as much as that of exceeding it”: inflation below 2% is considered detrimental to economic growth.